Researchers who studied the global population growth had identified 13 November 2026 as a possible doomsday. In 1960, scientists made a mathematical prediction that by this time it was possible that humans would reach an impossible number. The 1960 Doomsday Prediction has returned and made headlines all over the world, including in the Philippines, on Friday the 13th. The prediction was, however, made based on population trends, not the symptoms of a coming cataclysm around the world.
What Did Scientists Predict About November 13, 2026?
The study titled Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026 was published in 1960 by physicist Heinz von Foerster, Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot. The research, published in the journal Science, predicted that, by 2026, the number of people would be close to mathematical infinity if it continued to grow at a rapid pace. The calculation pointed to the risks of extrapolating past growth trends as time goes on.
Why Did the 1960 Doomsday Prediction Fail?
The researchers studied the historical estimates of population and created a mathematical model of population growth, which shows the growth rates increasing. The fertility rates subsequently fell worldwide, however, and slowed population growth considerably. As demographic shifts occurred the accuracy of the model declined, ABC Science reports. In fact, the predicted population explosion did not materialize, thus highlighting the shortcomings of long-term mathematical predictions.
What Do Modern Population Estimates Reveal?
The outlook on modern demographic research is very different from that of the 1960s projection. According to the United Nations World Population Prospects, the world’s population will reach a peak in the 2080s at around 10.3 billion, then slowly decrease. The declining birth rates and increased ageing have emerged as issues of concern in certain countries. These developments conflict with the notion of an unlimited growth rate in population.
What Does the Failed Prediction Mean for the Philippines?
The underwhelming prediction serves as a reminder in the Philippines that we need evidence-based population planning, not alarmist predictions. Long-term demographic trends are affected by changing fertility patterns, urbanisation and economic development. The Philippine Statistics Authority has population statistics for national planning and research. The episode highlights the importance of governments regularly to review their demographic assumptions, rather than assuming that they are inevitable outcomes.
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