ASEAN Markets Strained as Chinese Steel Exports Hit Record Highs

China’s exports of steel to ASEAN countries had significantly sky-rocketed in Q1-2025, with an astounding 36.55 million tons traded within the region – a 32% y/o/y increase or about 70% of China’s total steel exports in the quarter. Malaysia and Vietnam have been severely affected as there were increases in import of steel by 71.3% and 68.5% respectively. This avalanche of Chinese steel has required emergency meetings of the ASEAN Steel Committee as the regional producers scramble to keep up.

The export boom includes a number of product lines, such as Chinese rebar exports, which jumped by 112%, wire rod, by 55%, and billet exports, with an outstanding ten-fold increase, compared to the last year. Even though ASEAN countries in the past benefited from the economic growth of China, the current scenario is causing serious trade imbalances. Exports from ASEAN to China have reduced by 3% since 2022 thus worsening the regional trade deficit.

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India has in April already reacted to the situation by imposing the 12% safeguard duty on imports of steel from China after finding the threat to its domestic producers, following an investigation. This protective action will last for 200 days. Industry analysts explain such an export drive as China had to seek new markets due to the U.S. tariffs imposed for trade and domestic oversupply problems in the industry of steel.