Early Cherry Blossom Forecast: Tokyo Bloom Expected Late March, Plum Festivals Begin Now

The capital has struck the season of spring fever. As of February 9, 2026, the Japan Meteorological Corporation (JMC) has released its highly anticipated 4th forecast, predicting that the Tokyo bloom will arrive slightly earlier than average this year. Although the famous somei-yoshino trees are supposed to begin flowering at the beginning of March (around the 20th) and be in full blossom by the end of March (around the 28th), the residents and travelers do not have to wait until then to view the pink petals. The city’s stunning Plum Festivals (Ume Matsuri) have just kicked off, offering a vibrant and fragrant prelude to the sakura frenzy. In Yushima to Setagaya, the all-time traditional gardens have now been overflowing with deep pinks and whites and this is the ideal time to go out with the hanami without the crowd.

Early Cherry Blossom Forecast for 2026

The current statistics in the JMC indicate a warm spring trend. The early cherry blossom forecast indicates that while the winter chill delayed dormancy breaking slightly, recent warm spells are accelerating growth. Visitors planning their trips should aim for the last week of March to catch the Tokyo bloom at its absolute peak. Such places as Ueno Park and the Meguro River will be most likely to be at its finest during the period between March 25 and 30 a few days before the historical average.

Plum Festivals to Visit Right Now

While waiting for the sakura, the Plum Festivals are the main attraction. On February 8, the well-known Bunkyo Plum Festival started at Yushima Tenjin Shrine, and will continue until March 8, with 300 lamps. In the meantime, the Setagaya Plum Festival in the Hanegi park is already under way (since February 7), and consists of more than 650 trees and cultural tea ceremonies. These are the more intimate, relaxed spots to get the floral experience than the cherry blossom wild parties towards the end of the month.