Iran would use regional armed groups for decades to exert influence without having to face off against Israel and the US. But the escalating regional conflicts have shown the setbacks of this approach. Tehran’s new move is an attempt to regain credibility by taking visible action in the military sphere in response to Israel’s actions to eliminate Iran Direct Deterrence may increase the danger in the Middle East.
Iran Direct Deterrence: Why Proxy Warfare Is Losing Effectiveness
Iran’s traditional tactic was the alliance with Hezbollah, Iraqi militias and other regional organizations. But Israeli actions compromised portions of this network, making it less effective. As the capital of Iran, Tehran is now confronted with a tough dilemma: either respond, or look as if they are incapable of protecting their interests.
How Direct Missile Strikes Changed Iran’s Military Strategy
In April and October 2024, Iran launched missiles at Israel, a long time away from any direct confrontation. As the “Chatham House” noted, these were “new limits to retaliation”. However, Tehran’s military capabilities were revealed as weak when missiles were shot down.
Why Tehran Believes Direct Deterrence Strengthens Security
For Tehran, physical action sends the message that any attack on Iranian interests will have repercussions. It also helps to boost the morale of the people about the strength of the army. But I don’t think that you can achieve deterrence by showing force, you have to achieve deterrence by showing restraint, showing defence and engaging in diplomacy.
The Dangerous Risks of Iran’s New Deterrence Doctrine
When there is a risk of misperception, especially in the case of competing governments decoding military messages differently, direct confrontation raises the likelihood of miscalculation. The International Institute for Strategic Studies has pointed out the flaws in Iran’s missile-based approach. If diplomatic communication is not maintained, then if there is retaliation, it could turn into a massive regional war.
FAQs
Why is Iran moving beyond proxy warfare?
Iran seeks to demonstrate military credibility after attacks weakened parts of its regional network and challenged its traditional deterrence strategy.
What does direct deterrence mean?
It involves openly threatening or using national military capabilities to discourage adversaries from launching future attacks.
Could Iran’s strategy trigger a wider war?
Yes. Direct exchanges increase escalation risks, particularly when retaliation produces unintended casualties or misinterpretations.
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