China’s population falls for a third year in a row; govt faces challenges

China’s population declined for a third consecutive year in 2024, with deaths exceeding births. Experts have cautioned that this demographic shift is going to worsen in the coming years, posing unprecedented economic and social challenges.

According to a report by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, there was a population drop of 1.39 million, bringing the total to 1.408 billion in 2024, down from 1.409 billion in 2023. However, births increased to 9.54 million from 9.02 million, while deaths remained higher at 10.93 million.

Experts express concerns that the world’s second-largest economy will struggle with a declining workforce and consumer base as the population decreases. Furthermore, rising costs for elderly care and retirement benefits will also impact the already-indebted local governments.

“Without fundamental structural transformations – from enhancing the social safety net to eliminating gender discrimination – the trend of population decline cannot be reversed,” Yun Zhou, a sociology professor at the University of Michigan, said, as per reports. 

China has been witnessing a massive decline in the birth rate in the aftermath of the one-child policy (1980–2015) and rapid urbanization, which made child-rearing expressive due to job insecurity and high education costs.

Gender discrimination and traditional expectations for women to take care of the home exacerbate the issue, demographers suggest.

Amid the rising crisis, local authorities introduced certain measures last year to tackle the situation. Some of the measures include encouraging local governments to support childbearing and calling on educational institutions to promote positive attitudes toward marriage and family.

However, despite these initiatives, the number of women of reproductive age (15-49) is predicted to decline by over two-thirds by 2100.