Despite the progress in diplomacy, the Code of Conduct (COC) of the South China Sea Talks between China and ASEAN has yet to be achieved within the agreed timeline of 2026.
Some 80% of the proposed agreement’s paragraphs have been provisionally agreed to, but there are still deep disagreements.
The development has added to the worries of maritime safety in the region following continued clashes between the Chinese and Philippine navies in their disputed waters.
Why China and ASEAN Missed the 2026 Deadline
In 2023, China and ASEAN agreed to speed up the negotiation process and finalize the Code of Conduct by 2026. There was disagreement over geographical scope, binding nature and sensitive language, however, that meant no consensus. Diplomats after the last negotiating round in October confirmed talks would continue into 2027.
Legal Enforcement and Maritime Boundaries Remain Disputed
The plan for an agreement would be to avoid dangerous confrontations, but a plan won’t work unless there are commitments to be enforced. The interests in territorial claims and maritime access vary among ASEAN members. The ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ statement says the negotiations should be conducted in accordance with international law, including UNCLOS.
Philippines-China Tensions Complicate Regional Negotiations
Maritime conflicts have been renewed, putting pressure on the diplomatic negotiations. The Philippines is demanding more protectionist measures, and China is holding on to its claims. Competing interests from the various countries involved continue to make it difficult to agree on acceptable rules along the sea bed, despite the stepped up monthly meetings during Manila’s ASEAN chairmanship.
What Happens to South China Sea Talks in 2027?
In 2027, Singapore will take over the presidency of ASEAN, and will be responsible for the unfinished deal on the agreement. Negotiators should buttress the practical application of the code without letting outstanding provisions stand in the way of negotiation. Political commitment may be strengthened at the upcoming Manila summit, but there is no definite completion date.
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