Indonesia – The House of Representatives (DPR) passed a bill on the 2022 state budget into law at its sixth plenary session during the 2021-2022 session period. They believe that the 2022 state budget is quite comprehensive to mitigate various issues and continue the development agenda.
The view is based on experiences and achievements in realizing the 2020 and 2021 state budgets that lay the foundations for preparing the 2022 state budget, especially in implementing strategic programs, including public welfare and national economic recovery.
In the 2022 state budget, the parliament and government agreed on macro-economic assumptions, including economic growth at 5.2 percent, inflation rate at three percent, the rupiah’s exchange rate at Rp14,350 per US dollar, and interest rate of 10-year government bonds (SUN) at 6.8 percent.
The Indonesian crude price is targeted to cross US$63 per barrel, oil and gas lifting is projected to touch 1.739 million barrels per day, oil lifting is estimated to stand at 703 thousand barrels per day, and gas lifting is projected to reach 1.036 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
It was also believed that the economic growth forecast of 5.2 percent for 2022 is quite realistic since the national economy grew 7.2 percent in the second quarter, which is ahead of the recession phase.
Despite the forecasted correction in the third quarter of 2021, we remain optimistic that the economy will grow in the range of 3.7 to 4.5 percent in 2021 that will serve as the capital to achieve the 2022 economic growth.
Meanwhile, the 2022 state budget also set the unemployment rate at 5.5-6.3 percent, poverty rate at 8.5-9 percent, gini ratio at 0.376-0.378, human development index at 73.41-73.46, farmer’s exchange rate (NTP) at 103-105, and fishermen’s exchange rate (NTN) at 104-106. Morever, The state revenues are projected to reach Rp1,8461.14 trillion and state expenditures are targeted to touch Rp2,714.16 trillion in the 2022 state budget, so that the budget deficit will narrow down to Rp868.02 trillion, or 4.85 percent of the national gross domestic product.