Much of Luzon has been inundated with rainfall for the past few days of the monsoon season. But a welcome change in the weather pattern is in the works. The state weather bureau says a short break will come mid-week, with the weather systems being reshaped over the region.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued its latest PAGASA Habagat extended outlook, outlining the timing of Filipinos to experience the sudden turnaround of the southwest monsoon and the reasons behind this.
Why the Southwest Monsoon is Weakening This Week
This is due to a break in the monsoons which is the primary cause of the changing weather. A newly formed low pressure system off the coast of southern China is causing a “vacuum effect” that is sucking the wet southwest monsoon winds off the Philippine archipelago.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Josie (internally named Haishen) has also become a tropical depression. It is making a northwest movement and will pass the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) without making a direct impact on the Philippines.
Mid-Week Weather Breakdown: When Will the Rains Stop?
According to the latest PAGASA daily weather bulletin, the weather transition will occur in distinct phases across the next few days.
Expected Weather Dynamics (Wednesday to Thursday)
- Luzon/Metro Manila: There will be a temporary cease in the southwest monsoon bringing warm humid periods.
- Rain Profile: Widespread monsoon rain will be followed by isolated brief localized thunderstorms mainly in the late afternoon/evening.
- Thunderstorm activity will increase with general improvement, but in localized areas, flash flood potential will remain short duration in low-lying urban areas.
The Weekend Return: Friday and Onward
Even though it’s not yet summer, please don’t put away your umbrellas just yet. The PAGASA Habagat also clearly says that the break in the monsoon is temporary.
The southwest flow is expected to increase again over the western part of Luzon as of Friday. This is expected to return some rains to certain regions such as Ilocos Region, Central Luzon and portions of MIMAROPA during this renewal.
Stay ready for changing weather.
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Safety Advisories and Regional High-Risk Zones
The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), is on alert. Soils in the mountainside communities have been wet from previous weather disturbances, making the risk of landslides very high.
PAGASA Warning: Residents living near rivers, mountain slopes, and urban flood-prone sections should strictly monitor regional localized severe thunderstorm warnings issued by their local disaster risk reduction management offices.
Maritime and Coastal Outlook
- Northern and Western Luzon Seaboards: Offshore waters are still moderate to rough. The waves should not exceed 3.5 m for small seacrafts.
- Visayas & Mindanao: Slight to moderate seas are generally forecasted but coastal travel is fairly safe in these areas this week.
FAQs
What is causing the temporary monsoon break this week?
A new low-pressure area near southern China is actively pulling the southwest monsoon cloud tracking away from Luzon, resulting in a brief window of clearer skies and higher temperatures.
Will Tropical Depression Josie hit the Philippines?
No. According to the state weather bureau, Tropical Depression Josie is tracking northwestward near the edge of the PAR boundary and is projected to exit without making landfall.
Are flash floods still possible during a monsoon break?
Yes. Even during a monsoon break, intense afternoon localized thunderstorms can develop rapidly, dumping heavy rain that triggers flash floods or localized landslides within a short period.
